Marc Chandler

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Marc Chandler
About the author:

Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Spain Still In Pain: No Clear Sign Of Recovery?

Date: 29 April 2013

Last week, three new pieces of economic data for Spain revealed the extent of the nation’s fiscal and economic crisis. With record high unemployment, underperforming banks and uncertain economic policies, will Spain ever recover?

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Can Investor Confidence Recover After The Latest Market Shocks?

Date: 22 April 2013

Over the past week or so, a series of market shocks managed to throw investor confidence worldwide off balance. Although individually, none of these tremors were relatively big deals, collectively, they shook both investors and economists – and may ultimately impact policy, going forward.

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Emerging Markets Heading For Stagflation-Lite?

Date: 4 April 2013

With many of the world’s major emerging economies now moving towards a stagflation-lite situation, where inflation sticky at high levels but with growth decelerating or stagnant, can leaders find the correct policy response?

 

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Cyprus Bailout: The Death Of National Sovereignty?

Date: 18 March 2013

At less than 0.25 percent of the eurozone's GDP, Cyprus’s economy has long been thought to be too small to pose a systemic threat to the region. Yet, with its latest bailout package, agreed upon by EU officials on Saturday, the tiny nation is now at the centre of an existential storm: where countries are surrendering their sovereignty in favour of solvency.

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The Comedian Cometh: Why Beppe Grillo’s Success Is No Laughing Matter

Date: 11 March 2013

On Sunday, Beppe Grillo's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement announced its intentions to lead Italy's next government, though it reiterated that it would not agree to any alliances. Throughout his campaign, Grillo has successfully articulated the angst of the well-educated, yet under-employed or unemployed; but can his rhetoric now turn into something more substantial for Italy?

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Moody’s Blues - Why The UK Downgrade Was Meaningless: Marc Chandler

Date: 27 February 2013

Last Friday, the U.K. lost its much-treasured AAA rating, after Moody’s downgraded its sovereign debt on the back of poor economic growth forecasts. But while the timing of the downgrade was surprising, the move itself was long anticipated – and is unlikely to see the government, nor investors, change their opinions for the future.

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G-20: Leading The Charge Against Immoral Corporate Tax Practices?

Date: 20 February 2013

While media attention at the recent G-20 summit focused on the foreign exchange market and the possibility of ‘currency wars’, something far more important was developing in Moscow: The real news from the G-20 meeting is the formal beginning of a process that could very well lead to the largest substantial change in the international corporate tax system in almost a century.

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Returning The Reserves: Why Japan Must Focus On Consumption Not Investment

Date: 11 February 2013

Despite recent rhetoric by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Japanese economy remains in dire straits – with ‘Abenomics’ simply the past LDP neo-Keynesian policies on steroids. The time is right for Japan to redistribute its reserves back to its people. Not utilizing the reserves now is like not opening the umbrella in your hand when you are in a downpour.

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Are Financial Markets Depressed or Repressed?

Date: 21 January 2013

Financial repression results from policies that allow governments to fund their borrowing through imposing costs on others – increasingly seen across global financial markets from Japan’s asset purchase programme to the European Central Bank’s outright market transactions. By artificially lowering the cost of debt below what would prevail in a free market, quantitative easing has been called a “stealthy default” by PIMCO, one of the largest bond investors in the world. 

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The Return Of Abenomics: A New, Old Hope For Japan’s Economy?

Date: 9 January 2013

The ascent to power of the Democratic Party of Japan marked the end of Japan's one-party state, dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party since 1955. However, the DPJ was unable to address the challenges Japan faced, was internally unstable, and spent scarce political clout to support a controversial retail sales tax increase – ensuring the subsequent return of the LDP and Shinzo Abe in the 2012 general election. Given a second chance, how will the LDP fare?

 

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Cyprus: More Worrisome Than Greece?

Date: 18 December 2012

For more than a year now, Cyprus has been shut out of international capital markets after its banks suffered huge losses from their exposure to Greece. And while its finance ministry claimed on Tuesday that they had secured enough money to cover its immediate financial needs, the country’s long-term finance future remains in doubt – unless it can formalise an agreement to secure a credit line of up to 17.5 billion euros from its euro partners and the IMF.

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