Marc Chandler

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Marc Chandler
About the author:

Head of Global Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

The Fed, on Cue, Meets Expectations

Date: 27 July 2016

The Federal Reserve met market expectations fully.  It upgraded its assessment of the economy, recognized that the near-term risks had diminished, and remained committed to normalizing monetary policy.  There was one dissent from the steady stance, and it the KC Fed President had already tipped her hand.

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Is the U.S. Economic Recovery about to Speed Up?

Date: 27 July 2016

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles.

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Fiscal Stimulus Questions Force Abe's Hand

Date: 27 July 2016

As uncertainty over Japan's fiscal stimulus roiled the yen and domestic equities, Prime Minister Abe was forced to announce his fiscal intentions earlier than he initially intended.  The JPY27 trillion (~$265 bln) package.

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Expressing the Fed's Leadership through its Statement

Date: 27 July 2016

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting concludes today.  There is little doubt that it will stand pat.  There is not press conference afterward, so the statement is the only thing investors will get.  The statement is important.  We argue that the FOMC statement is the clearest expression of the views of the Fed's leadership.  The minutes are more comprehensive they dilute the signal from the Fed's leadership, and it conflates the difference between voters and non-voters and between the Governors and regional Presidents.

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Vital Signs for European Banks

Date: 26 July 2016

The health of European banks has reemerged as an important market factor this year.  The IMF warned that the greatest risk to global financial stability stems from three European banks.  Branches of two European banks failed the Federal Reserve's stress test.  In addition, this does not even mention the Italian banks, and especially the oldest bank in the world, Monte Paschi, which has been the immediate focus.

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How did the Yen Become So Attractive?

Date: 26 July 2016

The strength of the Japanese yen is the main development in the foreign exchange market today.  It has gained nearly 1.5%, as short-term participants grow skeptical of the kind of stimulus that had driven the yen around 7.5% lower between July 8 and July 21's six-week high.  The pendulum of market sentiment has swung wildly.

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September Oil is Losing a Technical Battle

Date: 25 July 2016

Today's 2.5% fall in the September light sweet crude oil futures contract extends the decline that began on June 9.  It is the third consecutive loss and the fifth loss in the past six sessions.  There are two important points to make that this Great Graphic from Bloomberg helps illustrates.

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Don't Stress Your Stress Test

Date: 25 July 2016

The results of the latest stress tests on European banks are expected to be released at 10:00 am CET (5:00 am ET).  The tests cover a little more than 50 of Europe's largest banks, with around 80% domiciled in the Eurozone.

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Slow Start for the Dollar

Date: 25 July 2016

What promises to be a busy week has begun off slowly.  The US dollar has been largely confined to its pre-weekend ranges against most of the major currencies.

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Emerging Markets Wait for FOMC Meeting

Date: 25 July 2016

EM ended the week on a soft note, as the dollar reasserted broad-based strength against most currencies. The FOMC meeting this week could see the Fed push back against the market’s dovish take on policy, in which case EM would be likely to remain under pressure.

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Cause and Effect, and then there is Monetary Policy

Date: 25 July 2016

Contrary to conventional wisdom, we think monetary policy remains an important variable for asset prices. Interest rates and foreign exchange are two dimensions of the price of money.  There is a relationship, even if it is not linear or temporally consistent.

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CFTC: Euro Bears Coming Out of the Woods

Date: 25 July 2016

Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July.  The euro bears added to their gross short position for the fourth consecutive week and for the ninth week in the past ten.  The 16.2k contract increase lifted the gross short position to 211.5k contracts, the largest since the first week of the year.

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Is there Additional Upside for the Dollar and S&P?

Date: 25 July 2016

The US dollar gained against all the major currencies over the past week.  It also rose against many emerging market currencies.  A notable exception was the Chinese yuan.  The yuan rose before the weekend, extended its advancing streak to four consecutive sessions, and in so doing, it snapped a six-week slide.

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An Emerging Markets Status Update

Date: 24 July 2016

The New York Times reported that the US is preparing to seize $1 bln in assets tied to 1MDB, S&P downgraded Turkey a notch to BB with a negative outlook, citing political uncertainty, Turkish President Erdogan declared a three-month state of emergency, The Nigerian Naira weakened above 300 per dollar for the first time, and Brazil’s central bank signaled a longer wait until it cuts rates

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The Brexit in a Flash (PMI)

Date: 22 July 2016

As the week draws to a close, there are three main developments in the capital markets.  First, the profit taking seen in US equities yesterday has continued in Asia and Europe today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe are both off around 0.5%.

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(Some) Money Markets Float On this October

Date: 21 July 2016

The weighted average of the Fed funds rate has edged higher.  Following the Fed hike in December 2015, the Fed funds average around 36 bp in January before moving into a 37-38 bp range.  However, since the UK referendum it has been trading consistently around 40 bp.

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ECB President Draghi's Comments are In Line with Expectations

Date: 21 July 2016

Draghi said nothing that surprised the market.  He acknowledged the resilience of the markets in the aftermath of the UK referendum.  He also noted that with new staff forecasts, next September, and the upcoming data, the ECB would be in a better position to assess the macroeconomic situation. The risks to growth remain tilted to the downside.

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RBA Rate Cut Risk Rises

Date: 20 July 2016

The Australian dollar recorded a key downside reversal last Friday (July 15) and had seen follow through selling this week.  It is off 1.25% over the past three sessions, which makes it the worst performing major currency behind the Japanese yen.

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